Baited Expectations

Baited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.Acquisition
Area level: 1Vendor Offer
1x Scroll FragmentMetadata
Item class: Divination Card
Metadata ID: Metadata/Items/DivinationCards/DivinationCardBaitedExpectations

Baited Expectations is a divination card. A set of eight can be exchanged for a random unique fishing item.

Item acquisition

Upgrade paths

This item can be acquired through the following upgrade paths or vendor recipes:

Amount	Ingredient	General Notes	Type
5	The GamblerThe Gambler5Divination Card"I don't believe in karma. If it were real, I would never win."	random divination card	Automatic
1	Stacked DeckStacked DeckStack Size: 10A stack of unknown divination cardsRight click to take a divination card out of the deck. Shift click to unstack.	random divination card	Automatic
1	The VoidThe Void1Reach into the Void and claim your prize.	random divination card set exchange	Automatic

Usage in upgrade paths

This item is used by upgrade paths or vendor recipes to create the following items:

Outcome	Amount	Ingredient	General Notes	Type
ReefbaneReefbane Fishing RodFishing Rod Quality: +20% Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6 Critical Strike Chance: 5.00% Attacks per Second: 1.20 Weapon Range: 13(30-40)% increased Cast Speed Thaumaturgical Lure (10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught Glows while in an Area containing a Unique FishHe cast far into the ocean And tore out her heart.	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random fishing item	Manual
SlitherpinchSlitherpinch Bronzescale GauntletsQuality: +20% Armour: 60 Evasion: (90-110)Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity (5-10)% increased Attack Speed (60-100)% increased Evasion Rating 0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life 0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as ManaA soft caress in dead of night, that slips about the neck, so tight.	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random Fishing Item	Manual
Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne TricorneQuality: +20% Evasion: 100Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks 70% increased Evasion Rating 15% increased Stun and Block Recovery +(15-30) to maximum Mana +(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance Cannot be ShockedFairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death.	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random Fishing Item	Manual
The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar Hallowed Hybrid FlaskRecovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on useRequires Level 60Instant Recovery (75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered 2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit (20-10)% reduced Charges usedTo achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us. Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh. - High Templar VollRight click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random fishing item	Manual
RainbowstrideRainbowstride Conjurer BootsQuality: +20% Energy Shield: (88-102)Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage (140-180)% increased Energy Shield +(40-60) to maximum Mana +20% to all Elemental Resistances 25% increased Movement Speed"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride. Some men have a longer stride than others." - Gaius Sentari	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random fishing item	Manual
Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens Fishing RodFishing Rod Quality: +20% Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6 Critical Strike Chance: 5.00% Attacks per Second: 1.20 Weapon Range: 13Siren Worm Bait (50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught (50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught You can catch Exotic FishGive a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day. But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month.	8	Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.	random fishing item	Manual

A group on Reddit inspected the outcome of the divination card by opening themselves or handing multiple stacks to streamers such as mbXtreme or Slipperyjim8. Based on mbXtreme's video, the outcomes are weighted. Out of 60 sets, he got 4 Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens
Fishing RodFishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13Siren Worm Bait
(50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught
(50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
You can catch Exotic FishGive a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day.
But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month. and no ReefbaneReefbane
Fishing RodFishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13(30-40)% increased Cast Speed
Thaumaturgical Lure
(10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
Glows while in an Area containing a Unique FishHe cast far into the ocean
And tore out her heart.. The rest were Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne
TricorneQuality: +20%
Evasion: 100Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks
70% increased Evasion Rating
15% increased Stun and Block Recovery
+(15-30) to maximum Mana
+(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance
Cannot be ShockedFairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across
the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death., SlitherpinchSlitherpinch
Bronzescale GauntletsQuality: +20%
Armour: 60
Evasion: (90-110)Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity
(5-10)% increased Attack Speed
(60-100)% increased Evasion Rating
0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life
0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as ManaA soft caress in dead of night,
that slips about the neck, so tight., RainbowstrideRainbowstride
Conjurer BootsQuality: +20%
Energy Shield: (88-102)Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage
(140-180)% increased Energy Shield
+(40-60) to maximum Mana
+20% to all Elemental Resistances
25% increased Movement Speed"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride.
Some men have a longer stride than others."
- Gaius Sentari and The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar
Hallowed Hybrid FlaskRecovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds
Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds
Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on useRequires Level 60Instant Recovery
(75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered
2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used
Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit
(20-10)% reduced Charges usedTo achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us.
Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh.
- High Templar VollRight click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.. Slipperyjim8 got a similar result.

It is not certain that it is due to weighting, or as the name of the card suggested, "Baiting" the players to expect to get Reefbane. Lastly, some of the fishing items are prerequisites for the quest offered by Krillson, Master Fisherman. While some of them can be quest reward of that quest chain.

For the long time it was believed that Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait
Unset RingRequires Level 38You can catch Corrupted Fish(10-15)% increased Cast Speed
100% increased Fishing Line Strength
20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
(20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity
CorruptedA man can spend his whole life fishing
before he learns it is not fish that he seeks. cannot be an outcome due to Angler's Plait always being corrupted while Baited Expectations only redeems for an uncorrupted items. However, examples of the opposite have been in the game for a long time, i.e. The WolfThe Wolf5Rigwald ItemThe largest beasts cannot be overpowered. The Greatwolf teaches us to use guile, not strength, to probe for the soft flesh and strike deep. divination card returns a Rigwald uncorrupted unique item, yet, it can and does produce Rigwald's CurseRigwald's Curse
Wereclaw TalismanTalisman Tier: 2Requires Level 28+(24-36)% to Global Critical Strike Multiplier+7% to Unarmed Attack Critical Strike Chance
Modifiers to Claw Damage also apply to Unarmed Attack Damage
Modifiers to Claw Attack Speed also apply to Unarmed Attack Speed
Modifiers to Claw Critical Strike Chance also apply to Unarmed Attack Critical Strike Chance
CorruptedI once thought the First Ones were just
stories made to scare children.
But I've seen what they can do. I've felt it.
And now I must live with that terrible knowledge.. Thus, Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait
Unset RingRequires Level 38You can catch Corrupted Fish(10-15)% increased Cast Speed
100% increased Fishing Line Strength
20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
(20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity
CorruptedA man can spend his whole life fishing
before he learns it is not fish that he seeks. is an eligible, yet, a very rare outcome.

Reward statistics

Here is the summary of experimental data and estimated probability

Fishing item	mbXtreme (n=60)	%1	Slipperyjim8 (n=50)	%2	poorFishwife (n≈400)	%3
Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens Fishing RodFishing Rod Quality: +20% Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6 Critical Strike Chance: 5.00% Attacks per Second: 1.20 Weapon Range: 13Siren Worm Bait (50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught (50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught You can catch Exotic FishGive a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day. But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month.	4/60	6.67%	6/50	12%		7.6%
Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne TricorneQuality: +20% Evasion: 100Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks 70% increased Evasion Rating 15% increased Stun and Block Recovery +(15-30) to maximum Mana +(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance Cannot be ShockedFairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death.			16/50	32%		32.0%
SlitherpinchSlitherpinch Bronzescale GauntletsQuality: +20% Armour: 60 Evasion: (90-110)Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity (5-10)% increased Attack Speed (60-100)% increased Evasion Rating 0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life 0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as ManaA soft caress in dead of night, that slips about the neck, so tight.			14/50	28%		36.6%
The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar Hallowed Hybrid FlaskRecovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on useRequires Level 60Instant Recovery (75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered 2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit (20-10)% reduced Charges usedTo achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us. Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh. - High Templar VollRight click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.			10/50	20%		12.2%
RainbowstrideRainbowstride Conjurer BootsQuality: +20% Energy Shield: (88-102)Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage (140-180)% increased Energy Shield +(40-60) to maximum Mana +20% to all Elemental Resistances 25% increased Movement Speed"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride. Some men have a longer stride than others." - Gaius Sentari			4/50	8%		11.6%
ReefbaneReefbane Fishing RodFishing Rod Quality: +20% Physical Damage: 8.4-15.6 Critical Strike Chance: 5.00% Attacks per Second: 1.20 Weapon Range: 13(30-40)% increased Cast Speed Thaumaturgical Lure (10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught Glows while in an Area containing a Unique FishHe cast far into the ocean And tore out her heart.	0/60	0%	0/50	0%		0%
Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait Unset RingRequires Level 38You can catch Corrupted Fish(10-15)% increased Cast Speed 100% increased Fishing Line Strength 20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught 40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught (20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity CorruptedA man can spend his whole life fishing before he learns it is not fish that he seeks.	0/60	0%	0/50	0%		0%

Note that due to smaller sampling size, streamers' outcome may not truly reflect the real probability. poorFishwife's data may be better in term of confidence interval.

Version history

Version	Changes
3.9.0	Introduced to the game.