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Baited Expectations

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Baited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.Acquisition
Level: 1
Sell Price
1x Scroll Fragment
Miscellaneous
Item class: Divination Card
Metadata ID: Metadata/Items/DivinationCards/DivinationCardBaitedExpectations

Baited Expectations is a divination card. A set of eight can be exchanged for a random unique fishing item. It is a continuation of the long running in-joke by Grinding Gear Games about fishing actually being a mechanic within the game. To clarify, there are no known or recorded instances of actual fishing or fish-items in the game.

Item acquisition
Questionmark.png

Upgrade paths

This item can be acquired through the following upgrade paths or vendor recipes:

AmountIngredientGeneral
Notes
Type
5The GamblerThe Gambler5Divination Card"I don't believe in karma. If it were real, I would never win."random divination cardAutomatic
1Stacked DeckStacked DeckStack Size: 10A stack of unknown divination cardsRight click to take a divination card out of the deck.
Shift click to unstack.
random divination cardAutomatic

Usage in upgrade paths

This item is used by upgrade paths or vendor recipes to create the following items:

OutcomeAmountIngredientGeneral
Notes
Type
ReefbaneReefbane
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 Dex(30-40)% increased Cast Speed
Thaumaturgical Lure
(10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
Glows while in an Area containing a Unique Fish
He cast far into the ocean
And tore out her heart.
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random fishing itemManual
SlitherpinchSlitherpinch
Bronzescale Gauntlets
Quality: +20%
Armour: 60
Evasion: (90-110)
Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity
(5-10)% increased Attack Speed
(60-100)% increased Evasion Rating
0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life
0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Mana
A soft caress in dead of night,
that slips about the neck, so tight.
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random Fishing ItemManual
Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne
Tricorne
Quality: +20%
Evasion: 100
Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks
70% increased Evasion Rating
15% increased Stun and Block Recovery
+(15-30) to maximum Mana
+(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance
Cannot be Shocked
Fairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across
the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death.
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random Fishing ItemManual
The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar
Hallowed Hybrid Flask
Recovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds
Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds
Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on use
Requires Level 60Instant Recovery
(75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered
2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used
Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit
(20-10)% reduced Charges used
To achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us.
Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh.
- High Templar Voll
Right click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random fishing itemManual
RainbowstrideRainbowstride
Conjurer Boots
Quality: +20%
Energy Shield: (88-102)
Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage
(140-180)% increased Energy Shield
+(40-60) to maximum Mana
+20% to all Elemental Resistances
25% increased Movement Speed
"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride.
Some men have a longer stride than others."
- Gaius Sentari
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random fishing itemManual
Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 DexSiren Worm Bait
(50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught
(50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
You can catch Exotic Fish
Give a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day.
But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month.
8Baited ExpectationsBaited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.random fishing itemManual

A group on Reddit inspected the outcome of the divination card by opening themselves or handing multiple stacks to streamers such as mbXtreme or Slipperyjim8.[1] Based on mbXtreme's video, the outcomes are weighted. Out of 60 sets, he got 4 Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 DexSiren Worm Bait
(50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught
(50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
You can catch Exotic Fish
Give a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day.
But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month.
and no ReefbaneReefbane
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 Dex(30-40)% increased Cast Speed
Thaumaturgical Lure
(10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
Glows while in an Area containing a Unique Fish
He cast far into the ocean
And tore out her heart.
. The rest were Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne
Tricorne
Quality: +20%
Evasion: 100
Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks
70% increased Evasion Rating
15% increased Stun and Block Recovery
+(15-30) to maximum Mana
+(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance
Cannot be Shocked
Fairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across
the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death.
, SlitherpinchSlitherpinch
Bronzescale Gauntlets
Quality: +20%
Armour: 60
Evasion: (90-110)
Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity
(5-10)% increased Attack Speed
(60-100)% increased Evasion Rating
0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life
0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Mana
A soft caress in dead of night,
that slips about the neck, so tight.
, RainbowstrideRainbowstride
Conjurer Boots
Quality: +20%
Energy Shield: (88-102)
Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage
(140-180)% increased Energy Shield
+(40-60) to maximum Mana
+20% to all Elemental Resistances
25% increased Movement Speed
"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride.
Some men have a longer stride than others."
- Gaius Sentari
and The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar
Hallowed Hybrid Flask
Recovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds
Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds
Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on use
Requires Level 60Instant Recovery
(75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered
2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used
Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit
(20-10)% reduced Charges used
To achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us.
Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh.
- High Templar Voll
Right click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.
.[2] Slipperyjim8 got a similar result.[3]

It is not certain that it is due to weighting, or as the name of the card suggested, "Baiting" the players to expect to get Reefbane. Lastly, some of the fishing items are prerequisites for the quest offered by Krillson, Master Fisherman. While some of them can be quest reward of that quest chain.

It is a spread rumor, that Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait
Unset Ring
Requires Level 38Has 1 Socket
You can catch Corrupted Fish
(10-15)% increased Cast Speed
100% increased Fishing Line Strength
20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
(20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity
Corrupted
A man can spend his whole life fishing
before he learns it is not fish that he seeks.
can be an outcome. Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait
Unset Ring
Requires Level 38Has 1 Socket
You can catch Corrupted Fish
(10-15)% increased Cast Speed
100% increased Fishing Line Strength
20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
(20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity
Corrupted
A man can spend his whole life fishing
before he learns it is not fish that he seeks.
can only be obtained corrupted while Baited Expectations can only be redeemed for uncorrupted items. Thus, the ring may be not be able to be redeemed from the card set.

Reward Statistics

Here is the summary of experimental data and estimated probability

Fishing item mbXtreme (n=60) [2] %1 Slipperyjim8 (n=50) [3] %2 poorFishwife (n≈400)[1] %3
Song of the SirensSong of the Sirens
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 DexSiren Worm Bait
(50-40)% reduced Quantity of Fish Caught
(50-60)% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
You can catch Exotic Fish
Give a man a fish, and you can feed him for a day.
But give a fish a man, and you can feed it for a month.
4/60 6.67% 6/50 12% 7.6%
Fairgraves' TricorneFairgraves' Tricorne
Tricorne
Quality: +20%
Evasion: 100
Requires Level 12, 27 DexAdds 6 to 12 Cold Damage to Attacks
70% increased Evasion Rating
15% increased Stun and Block Recovery
+(15-30) to maximum Mana
+(20-30)% to Lightning Resistance
Cannot be Shocked
Fairgraves' trusty tricorne accompanied him far across
the seas, deep under the ground, and even beyond death.
16/50 32% 32.0%
SlitherpinchSlitherpinch
Bronzescale Gauntlets
Quality: +20%
Armour: 60
Evasion: (90-110)
Requires Level 27, 22 Str, 22 Dex+(40-50) to Dexterity
(5-10)% increased Attack Speed
(60-100)% increased Evasion Rating
0.6% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Life
0.4% of Physical Attack Damage Leeched as Mana
A soft caress in dead of night,
that slips about the neck, so tight.
14/50 28% 36.6%
The Writhing JarThe Writhing Jar
Hallowed Hybrid Flask
Recovers (120-168) Mana over 5.00 seconds
Recovers (435-609) Life over 5.00 seconds
Consumes (16-18) of 40 Charges on use
Requires Level 60Instant Recovery
(75-65)% reduced Amount Recovered
2 Enemy Writhing Worms escape the Flask when used
Writhing Worms are destroyed when Hit
(20-10)% reduced Charges used
To achieve godhood, they would cast off all that god has gifted us.
Mortality, compassion, even the sanctity of flesh.
- High Templar Voll
Right click to drink. Can only hold charges while in belt. Refills as you kill monsters.
10/50 20% 12.2%
RainbowstrideRainbowstride
Conjurer Boots
Quality: +20%
Energy Shield: (88-102)
Requires Level 53, 94 Int(4-6)% Chance to Block Spell Damage
(140-180)% increased Energy Shield
+(40-60) to maximum Mana
+20% to all Elemental Resistances
25% increased Movement Speed
"They say that you should take life's troubles in your stride.
Some men have a longer stride than others."
- Gaius Sentari
4/50 8% 11.6%
ReefbaneReefbane
Fishing Rod
Fishing Rod
Quality: +20%
Physical Damage: 8.415.6
Critical Strike Chance: 5.00%
Attacks per Second: 1.20
Weapon Range: 13
Requires 8 Str, 8 Dex(30-40)% increased Cast Speed
Thaumaturgical Lure
(10-20)% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
Glows while in an Area containing a Unique Fish
He cast far into the ocean
And tore out her heart.
0/60 0% 0/50 0% 0%
Angler's PlaitAngler's Plait
Unset Ring
Requires Level 38Has 1 Socket
You can catch Corrupted Fish
(10-15)% increased Cast Speed
100% increased Fishing Line Strength
20% increased Quantity of Fish Caught
40% increased Rarity of Fish Caught
(20-40)% increased Fish Bite Sensitivity
Corrupted
A man can spend his whole life fishing
before he learns it is not fish that he seeks.
0/60 0% 0/50 0% 0%

Note that due to smaller sampling size, streamers' outcome may not truly reflect the real probability. poorFishwife's data may be better in term of confidence interval.

Version history

Version Changes
3.9.0
  • Introduced to the game.

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 poorFishwife (February 24, 2020). "[Serious] Videos of loot from Baited Expectations divination cards (unique fishing items)". Official Path of Exile subreddit. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  2. 2.0 2.1 mbXtreme (February 15, 2020). "[PATH OF EXILE] – 60x “BAITED EXPECTATION” – WAIT… WHAT?". Youtube. Retrieved February 16, 2020.
  3. 3.0 3.1 Slipperyjim8 (February 24, 2020). "Loot from 50 Baited Expectations". Youtube. Retrieved February 24, 2020.